Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

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Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby weatherdude » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:58 am

Here is this week's forecast update as of 10/3/17. Fall will begin to find its footing in the days to come with several cold front beginning to be ushered in with the arrival of October. Hope the October opener was a good one for you.

https://huntthefront.blog/2017/10/03/first-october-cold-front-and-falls-semi-permanent-residence-10317/?blogsub=confirmed#blog_subscription-2

Best,
Austin


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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby KLEMZ » Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:16 pm

weatherdude, I look forward to your posts! It is very helpful to have a weather expert with a hunting bias in his weather reports! Thanks for doing this.
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby elk yinzer » Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:28 pm

I am really enjoying these posts, keep up the good work.

When I am retired many years from now I'll be darned if I'll be out there sitting in a tree every day of the season. I've seen what these fronts can do for hunting. I don't currently have the luxury of picking my days so much as they pick me, but reading this really makes me wish I could.
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby weatherdude » Thu Oct 05, 2017 5:30 pm

Thanks for the support guys. Working on trying to improve the site every week. It should only get better with time. Good luck!
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby docwaters » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:28 am

Great stuff! Thank you for interpreting this, just signed up for the emails. The long range (week out or more) seems to be all over the board depending upon which resource I consult. It's fantastic to have a hunter's perspective applied to the data.
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby weatherdude » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:26 am

docwaters wrote:Great stuff! Thank you for interpreting this, just signed up for the emails. The long range (week out or more) seems to be all over the board depending upon which resource I consult. It's fantastic to have a hunter's perspective applied to the data.


Thank you for the support and subscribing! You're correct. The current state of the science really isn't up to speed with long range forecasting. You can get a ballpark idea oftentimes but even then it's pretty tough. I always try to acknowledge that in the discussions. I would avoid things like Accuweather's 45 day forecast at all costs. Seasonal and subseasonal forecasts are a product of analyzing current global characteristics and trying to forecast what the weather "should do" based on that. It's scientifically valuable but currently it's not great for accurate forecasts at that range.
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby docwaters » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:35 pm

weatherdude wrote:
docwaters wrote:Great stuff! Thank you for interpreting this, just signed up for the emails. The long range (week out or more) seems to be all over the board depending upon which resource I consult. It's fantastic to have a hunter's perspective applied to the data.


Thank you for the support and subscribing! You're correct. The current state of the science really isn't up to speed with long range forecasting. You can get a ballpark idea oftentimes but even then it's pretty tough. I always try to acknowledge that in the discussions. I would avoid things like Accuweather's 45 day forecast at all costs. Seasonal and subseasonal forecasts are a product of analyzing current global characteristics and trying to forecast what the weather "should do" based on that. It's scientifically valuable but currently it's not great for accurate forecasts at that range.


To your point, the significant cold front that was going to reach Kentucky next week as of three days ago has been taken off the table by Nate, I assume.
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby mheichelbech » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:54 pm

This is awesome! Thanks for doing! Had one question...have you ever observed changes in deer movement due to the minor changes in weather? For example, from 85 to 80, south wind to southeast wind and other minor changes?
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby weatherdude » Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:42 pm

docwaters wrote:
weatherdude wrote:
docwaters wrote:Great stuff! Thank you for interpreting this, just signed up for the emails. The long range (week out or more) seems to be all over the board depending upon which resource I consult. It's fantastic to have a hunter's perspective applied to the data.


Thank you for the support and subscribing! You're correct. The current state of the science really isn't up to speed with long range forecasting. You can get a ballpark idea oftentimes but even then it's pretty tough. I always try to acknowledge that in the discussions. I would avoid things like Accuweather's 45 day forecast at all costs. Seasonal and subseasonal forecasts are a product of analyzing current global characteristics and trying to forecast what the weather "should do" based on that. It's scientifically valuable but currently it's not great for accurate forecasts at that range.


To your point, the significant cold front that was going to reach Kentucky next week as of three days ago has been taken off the table by Nate, I assume.


Yes I believe Nate is going to have a significant impact on the next week's weather which will likely bring high pressure and warm temperatures to most of the central and eastern US. I was doing a bit of forecasting this evening and noticed this becoming the trend. I think I'm going to write a special forecast discussion about this. Look for that sometime tomorrow (saturday) on the site.
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby weatherdude » Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:50 pm

mheichelbech wrote:This is awesome! Thanks for doing! Had one question...have you ever observed changes in deer movement due to the minor changes in weather? For example, from 85 to 80, south wind to southeast wind and other minor changes?


Thanks for the support! I can't say that I've ever observed a noticeable change in deer behavior with that small of a temperature change. I am no expert on deer, but if I had to guess I would say no. It's always been the big drops in temperature that have provoked the best movement in my experience, or in deep winter when it is bitter cold for long periods of time you will often see a jump in deer activity with a warm front. I've heard that cold fronts tend to drive deer to feed, which is why you see more activity. And when it comes to warming up after long periods of cold I think it's just a matter of them feeling more comfortable and not holed up from the cold anymore.

With a wind shift you may get deer moving to a slightly different bedding location so they can use the shift to their advantage. That is the extent of my knowledge.
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby <DK> » Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:24 am

Weatherdude. I enjoy your site and writing. Bc of the fast pace of life and the season I havent got to check it out as often... Keep up the good work though :clap: I will try share more often w others.
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby strutnrut716 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:56 am

This is really great Weatherdude ! THANK YOU !! :clap: :clap:
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby weatherdude » Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:44 am

Darkknight54 wrote:Weatherdude. I enjoy your site and writing. Bc of the fast pace of life and the season I havent got to check it out as often... Keep up the good work though :clap: I will try share more often w others.


I hear that man. Thanks for the support!
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Re: Forecast Update (10/3/17) - Hunt The Front

Unread postby weatherdude » Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:46 am

strutnrut716 wrote:This is really great Weatherdude ! THANK YOU !! :clap: :clap:


Thank you!


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