What are the odds?

[Zap]

Season opens 9/14.

Start glassing and physical scouting(mainly looking for tracks after/during a good rain) 30 days before opener.

All public land within 50 miles of KCK/15 miles of a city of 100,000......good familiarity with some of the areas.

Start hunting on opening day, hunt and scout/observe while hunting.....4-5 hunts per week plus maintaining the glassing when time is available.

No trail cams used, legal archery equipment only.

Find and kill a buck over 150" gross within 30 days.

Odds of success by %?

1 out of 100 hunters will have success = 1%.

What say U?

If I need to add any other info ask for it and I will do my best to provide that info.

[BHC]

I think it'll vary based on two major factors. Who the hunter is( I.e. Skillset), and second what kind of deer in what numbers are on yah property.

For instance on my property 3300scres we have approx 25 bucks 3.5+ yrs old each yr. The best hunters on this forum will have a tough time killing 150" deer because there is only about 1 on the property each year.. Some yrs our biggest are in the 140's.

I'd say depending on the property and hunter it'll be between close to 0% - close to 50%

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[Zap]

Public property around here will have some good bucks using it during the early season, especially archery only areas.

But all areas will have some good bucks traveling thru. But maybe not bedding on that area.

[rancid crabtree]

Not enough info given to proved estimate. You have not provided the Density (PSM) of buck that are 150" or better. You could do all you claim but if there are not bucks at 150" or grater, your odds are zero. Without knowing the density of 150" and greater bucks (might be zero or it might be 400) there is no way to provide an answer.

[Zap]

That info is not available.

There are however such bucks on the areas. Maybe 0 psm in one spot and three psm in another at that time of year.

[Autumn Ninja]

Just depends...I could hand pick a group that would have around a 1% chance. But, I could also hand pick a group that would have nearly a 100% chance.

[Zap]

I think the folks that would make the effort described would probably be in a distinct group.

But not a 100% group.

Good response, AN.

[Stanley]

Just looking at tracks doesn't tell you antler size. You need eyes on to determine if the buck will be close to 150. This narrows the chances. Sept. 14th through Oct 14th is bed to food source pattern time. In other words pre rut. I have been doing some scouting/glassing/looking myself.

I did find some nuts/acorns(pictured) that could be a draw. The acorn is from a shingle oak. The other two nuts are hickory. I like the smaller hickory nuts for deer and the bigger nuts for squirrels. I did see one buck twice but he was 1/2 mile apart in different bean fields on consecutive nights. Plus he is a spike (pictured). I did see two other bucks neither would be 150.

So for me my chances would be zero, so far in answer to your question. I think in your area of Kansas 5% would be generous for any hunter to kill a 150 inch buck first month of season. JMHO

[Bucky]

Low.... I'd say less than 3%. 150" deer are not "common" anywhere I have hunted

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[Zap]

I thought there was a formula for track size to antler size?

[oldrank]

Where I live id say 1% or less. 150 inch bucks r very very rare.

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[BassBoysLLP]

Never hunted down there so I don't have a good handle on the age structure. I'd put my odds at less than 1% without any prior knowledge. More if I had a good handle on the age structure.

[Bonecrusher101]

I like playing the odds and have also done this very thing to stay grounded and reasonable. My odds are for public land only and these odds were before I found this forum. I feel like I've learned more in the last five months than I have in the last five years so hopefully my odds will be better this season.

For me I usually put the odds of seeing a deer per hunting trip at 40 percent of the time. Sometimes it's more sometimes it's less, but I don't get upset if I do not see half of the time. Of that 40 percent, half the deer I see are does. (During early season I see more does, during late season I see more bucks) now I'm down to twenty percent of seeing a buck, 2/3 of the time it's a spike or 4pt. And I will let those slide. I at least need a 2.5yr old 6 pt at a minimum. To me that's down to 7-8 percent of seeing him. Actually having a buck I want to kill come into range and get a shot is only 1-2 percent.

So if I hunt most days, 23-25 days a month and have 3 months of deer season, I should be able to kill a decent buck every season. That's how I typically rate my odds. Hopefully this season will improve!

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[JoeRE]

I think you can estimate how many bucks like that are available. Approximately how many acres/square miles of public land are there within 50 miles of KC? I assume that is only a half circle, or are you hunting MO as well?

Never set foot on any public in that area, but I would be impressed if there more than an average of one 150 class buck per square mile of public land (640 acres) across all the areas in the time period you indicated, thru mid October. Around here in eastern Iowa, I would put it as about one 150 class buck per TWO square miles of public land on average. 150s are rare...there are two 140s for ever 150 and two 130s for every 140.

One out of 100 hunters is pretty low. If you randomly sprinkle 100 hunters across say 5 square miles with a 150 class buck ever square mile and all the hunter are hunting like you describe...over the course of a month several big bucks are probably going to be dead. Just being out there that much means their odds are better than the guy who gets out one weekend a season. Extra skill of course can boost the odds.

If you had said any hunter, including the ones that just go out one or two weekends a year....well then the odds go way down. I think time is as important as skill level.