I apologize if this turns into a book
I love this discussion.
Super interesting read. Historical data is something that truly fascinates me. Over the past few years I have been trying to keep track of the trends...problem is many times I don't get a lot of chances at the deer that made the trends. Some years...I will lose a whole generation of deer. 3 to 5yrs in some spots gone. Early season trends are definitely a bit more fickle than hormone based trends.
Food rotation is so varied here in the bigger woods. So many different combinations. This year is my favorite combo. Heavy apples. ...few acorns. With my second year on this urban property, I am seeing a completely different trend this year. Bucks are moving much more during daylight. Bucks that never once showed daylight are showing this year (a year older). Its why many times here it can take a few years to get an area down. With a sept 9 opener. ..those pics start to mean something. Plenty of scouting has been done to know where they move to throughout the season. There is one giant that I am chasing. 2016 he disappeared for 20 days after he shed velvet which was right around Sept 5. in 2016 out of all the cams I ran. Probably only got daylight pics of him 5-6x all season. From August to December. Lots of pics of him. Just not many daylight. 2017 1 daylight occurrence so far. There is another buck that showed up at Thanksgiving. 4.5yr+ came close to killing him in December. Should be interesting to see if he is back on the same ground scrape again.
Killed a buck in 2015 in one bedding area that is always good on an odd year when the apples produce. Pruning an apple tree made it produce 2yrs in a row. 2017 is another year that should show good bucks moving back into here. Post season showed up and comers made it. So far, none of them have showed up. Trends say, they should be here by now. So A. they are late B. they are dead. C. somehow I have missed them over the last month.
Bottom line, I have a LOT of trends that I am looking for this year. I have also seen a LOT of "hopeful" trends FAIL miserably. There are a LOT that I have tried to capitalize on the next season only to have it be a bust. The #1 reason is the deer die and many times, no other mature bucks move in to take their place. Gun season in certain areas is pretty ruthless.
I would LOVE to hear specific examples. I have killed rut bucks with these tactics but very few early season deer. (prior to Oct 15)