2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

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headgear
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby headgear » Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:26 am

I've follow CA's rut predictions stuff over the years calling for late and early ruts but I've got a 20 year journal of mature buck sighting and shooting in our area and I have to agree with others that photoperiod is the only way to go.

This is for Northern Minny so you area could vary but we have shot and seen the most mature bucks between Nov 7 to 14 with the best action on Nov 10 to 12.


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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby PLB » Tue Sep 21, 2010 5:13 am

I agree with most on this topic. My 25 years of bowhunting the rut has taught me you need to be in a tree all day and don't leave from Nov.7-9th. Those three days year in and year out are just magical. Weather trumps everything though as far as daylight movement. The breeding is still occuring, at night though! Where I hunt in SW Wi the landowner always says he believes peak breeding occurs the first week of November based on when the most fawns are being born in the spring. It's darn near the same to the day year in and year out!
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby Hodag Hunter » Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:49 am

Ok, I'll play devil's advocate......if this photohoweverit'spelled is gospel, explain how every doe does not come into heat the exact same day?

Does day light time decreasing cause the doe(s) to kick off estrus, yes I agree. As others posted this can be artificially controlled, not only with deer but livestock also. Horse breeders have been doing this for years. But why not the same day for all animals?

This may be off based and I have no scientific proof, but let's say that 95% of deer that enter estrus lasts about a 7-14 day duration. During that time frame, can the amount/% change?

Example: "normal year" 20% the first 3 days, 50% next 4 days and 30% the last 7 days.

Late rut example 10% first 3 days, 30% next 4 days and 60% the last 7 days.

Is this possible? Rut(breeding window) still runs the average 14 days but % of does is earlier or later buy some uncontrolled variable.

Again as others have stated, weather trumps all for daylight activity and a lot of breeding is under the cover of darkness. But haven't some of you experianced spurts of activity earlier or later in the breeding window from year to year? I have, and can't say it was all weather related. Don't have the answer(s)just looking for feedback.
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby Black Squirrel » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:47 am

Hodag Hunter wrote:Does day light time decreasing cause the doe(s) to kick off estrus, yes I agree. As others posted this can be artificially controlled, not only with deer but livestock also. Horse breeders have been doing this for years. But why not the same day for all animals?

I think it is because each animal is a little different physiologicaly, meaning there cycles are not all exactly the same. Same may have a shorter cycle, while some may have a little longer cycle. Also, some does, although few, don't get bred there first time around, and will cycle back around into estrous. Fawn that are in very good condition are capable of breeding their first year, however will usually cycle latter than the main heard. All this will spread the rut out, and you will see rutting activity based on what stage the does in your area are at.
Hodag Hunter wrote:Again as others have stated, weather trumps all for daylight activity and a lot of breeding is under the cover of darkness. But haven't some of you experianced spurts of activity earlier or later in the breeding window from year to year? I have, and can't say it was all weather related. Don't have the answer(s)just looking for feedback

I too have experinced these spurts, and I believe it is because there is a hot doe in the area, causing alot of the bucks to go crazy trying to find her, as well as the big boy running off the smaller ones, but they still hang around. Just my thought on this, lets see what others say.
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby Sam Ubl » Wed Sep 22, 2010 2:23 am

GRFox wrote:Ive noticed that everybody in the above posts has said the 5-10th. In my neck of the woods, everyone swears that it is the 15-25th of November And from what I have seen in my couple of years it is right on. I am in southern NY. Anybody have any input on this?

Also, I noticed people saying that they don't see to much chasing....me neither. I only see the little guys harassing does. Ive been hunting for 12 years (3-4 years serious bow hunting) and I have only seen two mature bucks chasing does. I have seen big bucks looking for does and its usually right before dark, which would jive with what you guys are saying about most of the breeding occurring at night.


Different regions have various photoperiodism. While the sun goes down at _:__PM here in Wisconsin, it goes down at _:__PM in New York. Sort of like the onset of cold in the North versus the time it takes to reach the south.
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby Sam Ubl » Wed Sep 22, 2010 2:31 am

Hodag Hunter wrote:Ok, I'll play devil's advocate......if this photohoweverit'spelled is gospel, explain how every doe does not come into heat the exact same day?



Doe Heat Cycles and Buck Testosterone Levels are based on the amount of daylight hours in a 24 hour period- photoperiodism. You can check with your state deer biologists to verify this fact. There is no mention of all doe's coming into heat in the same day.

Bucks are ready to breed the moment they come out of velvet, so they just hang out and wait, but their testosterone kicks in when the time comes to start chasin and protecting. Some doe come into heat more than once if they aren't bred the first time around, so on occasion, you'll see spurts of activity later in the season, but that's rare and is not something you can prepare for.

In all fairness, one has to remember that no 'body' is exactly alike. If it were a perfect world, and living entities could work on a stopwatch, life just wouldn't be interesting. , I wish I could pee after waiting in line dancing at the packer game, but when I finally get to the yernal, the pressure from 30 loud guys behind me doing the same dance I was doing makes it tough... I'm either delayed until I start counting the tiles or back to the end of the line I go :(
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby headgear » Wed Sep 22, 2010 3:58 am

This goes along the lines of what others have said, does just like bucks are individuals and have their own genetic makeup that can determine when they breed. The peak of the breeding seaons is just when most of the does are coming into heat but they can and do get bread in Oct and December.

I think sometimes some of the older does come into heat a little early and are bread in Oct. On some other hunting sites I visit you alwasy seem "The Rut is On!" posts because someone saw a buck or two chasing a doe hard. I alwasy have to chime in and say NO the rut is not on, but you did see a hot doe and they can and do breed in October.
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby Hodag Hunter » Wed Sep 22, 2010 5:54 am

Ok, .......does the same doe come into heat the same 24 hour period(day) from one year to the next?

Example: doe #1 always has her first estrus cycle start on Nov. 7th. Will it be Nov. 7th next year? or can it be earlier or later by a few days from year to year?

A doe will "cycle out" of estrus with in 24 hours if not bred and cycle again within 27-29 days for a total of 3 to 4 times in a given year if continually not bred. But does the day of her first cycle remain constant from year to year? Can it be accelerated or lagged by some other variable?
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby goldtip5575 » Wed Sep 22, 2010 10:09 am

The variable would probably be what is in each does genetic make-up.Why couldnt there be a gene that causes later cycles after photowatever occurs.Im no genetic engineer but I DID STAY AT A HOLIDAY INN LAST NIGHT SO I CANT BE WRONG.
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby Hodag Hunter » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:17 pm

goldtip5575 wrote:The variable would probably be what is in each does genetic make-up.Why couldnt there be a gene that causes later cycles after photowatever occurs.Im no genetic engineer but I DID STAY AT A HOLIDAY INN LAST NIGHT SO I CANT BE WRONG.


I could be wrong and I'm posting this from a Holiday Inn right now. :lol:
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby Brandon » Thu Sep 23, 2010 3:04 am

Dewey wrote:I have been following Charles Alsheimer's rut predictions for quite a few years now and respect his studies but it seems that no matter what he predicts for the timing of the rut I always seem to have the most buck searching action consistently from Oct 31-Nov 10 so that is when I plan my vacation every year.

Hunting during the peak breeding can be very frustrating especially when the bucks lock up with does. I have much better luck earlier in November just as the rut starts to wind up when the bucks are still somewhat easy to pattern.

I guess only time will tell but every time he predicts a late rut I still do just fine the first week of November. The only thing that seems to delay it temporarily is very warm weather but I'm sure the bulk of the action takes place at night then.


I 100% agree with all 3 of Deweys paragraphs...entirely.

last week oct and 1st week of nov if i was to take vacation... every year, but weather is how i pick my specific days, sits, and locations.
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby dan » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:10 am

Its the amount of daylight that triggers the rut... The rut may seem earlier or later based on the times deer are active, but the rut itself is triggered by the amount of and length of daylight.
If you don't believe go shining if there ain't much daylight activity and you will see all kinds of rutting activity.
Some of the top doe in heat scent manufactures gather there scent before rut, or even several times a year by keeping there doe herd indoors and artificially adjusting the amount of sunlight to trigger estrous whenever they want to collect scent.
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby NatureBoy » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:32 am

dan wrote:Its the amount of daylight that triggers the rut... The rut may seem earlier or later based on the times deer are active, but the rut itself is triggered by the amount of and length of daylight.
If you don't believe go shining if there ain't much daylight activity and you will see all kinds of rutting activity.
Some of the top doe in heat scent manufactures gather there scent before rut, or even several times a year by keeping there doe herd indoors and artificially adjusting the amount of sunlight to trigger estrous whenever they want to collect scent.

So basically you think the 15 Alsheimer study is a bunch of hogwash? I don't necessarily disagree with you. I'm just interested in learning more about the timing of it. As you know, many "experts" claim that the moon cycle as related to the Autumn equinox has a great influence on the timing of the rut. But if I understand you correctly, you feel that it solely has to do with the shortened daylight as winter approaches, right?
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby dan » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:49 am

So basically you think the 15 Alsheimer study is a bunch of hogwash? I don't necessarily disagree with you. I'm just interested in learning more about the timing of it. As you know, many "experts" claim that the moon cycle as related to the Autumn equinox has a great influence on the timing of the rut. But if I understand you correctly, you feel that it solely has to do with the shortened daylight as winter approaches, right?

I believe the rut is effected by the moon... As is much of the movement of deer. But my experiences and observations tell me that for the most part the rut is at the same time every year and the moon and weather mainly seems to just effect what time of day they are up and moving.
As further evidence I have a few cop friends and they have told me that the peak in car deer accidents is at the same time (date wise) every year.
I know there are a few cops on the forum, maybe one can chime in and tell us "date wise" when he sees peak car kills.
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Re: 2010 Rut Prediction For the North ???????

Unread postby Singing Bridge » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:35 am

Photoperiodism being responsible for the rut (decreasing daylight) versus an additional trigger factor of the second full moon following the autumnal equinox- what to believe?

There has been so much research done on this that I have fallen back on what is logical to me based on observation of my hunting areas- take it for what its worth. As Dan noted, in my areas the car/deer accidents sharply escalate during the same two-week period every year. I also jump newborn fawns streamside every spring during the same two-week period. Overall, photoperiodism appears to be the dominant factor in the breeding cycle in my hunting areas.

I have watched the other theory shine in some years and go bust in others, and there are too many excuses as to what happened in the years where it was way off to suit me. So, do I believe that all breeding activity occurs during the exact same time frame each year? Of course not, but the majority of it seems to consistently. Can doe estrus cycle timing be thrown off by poor health, environmental stress or a huge increase in the buck population around a group of does? Researchers have tons of documentation that it is so. Could it be important that at least some of the doe breeding and fawn births be outside of the normal time frame to ensure that a complete loss of a fawn crop doesn't happen during extreme or unusual conditions? I think so.

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