Boogieman1 wrote:Uncle Lou wrote:the hardest part of the lake thermal effect is trying to figure out which mass is warmer, the land or the lake. As thermals rise they pull from the other, and guessing opposite as they sink. So it can get complicated in fall. That is why I posted the humorous anecdote, as it explodes my little brain. Swirls are hard enough to figure out, then you throw thermals, light wind vs heavy wind, then lake temps vs land temps it can get to overload. That "outdated" little milkweed trick works wonders to help figure out a specific locale.
Since you tossed the life raft I will offer my opinion. There’s no 2 days that are the same. Slight variances are at play. What is predicted is conditions where thermals are a player and conditions they are not even a factor. For myself this makes things highly predictable. The thing with hunters is we know we need time in the stand to capitalize. When you have multiple variances like thermal getting pulled one direction, wind gusts going another, and your ground scent yet another. Well you just screwed 75% of the pie. In a sweet set up like what was provided I line em and give myself 75% of deer that don’t have a clue and can’t get to my air currents. The devil comes when the time is right but u don’t have the conditions. That’s when u gotta risk it to get the biscuit
I Disagree. Conditions change, granted. But thermals follow given laws of physics and there are definate patterns. Shade on a lake is pretty dang consistent until leaf drop. Once you realize how strong a wind it takes to "overcome" thermals it ain't rocket science. The weakest denominator in figuring out thermals is IMO, our ability to truly pay attention and think through them... it's far easier to just throw a sit at a location and take our chances.... And that pays off a lot of times so many of us don't stop to find the why.
However, thermals are understandable, and If we commit to asking why/how we can start seeing patterns more and more. And yes, there is always anomalies, but there is also alot of consistencies. Nothing replaces sitting and seeing what they do..... So I'll wrap up by saying if we sit in a location, and thermals bust us, well that is all part of the game. However, if we continue to sit in the same location (or a similar set up) under the same exact conditions, and we continue to get busted, than at some point we have to, or we should, conclude that it is because we haven't used our brain to figure out what was happening and how we can go about trying something different. And that learning continues everytime we step into the woods.... Or at least it will for those that truly want to understand and manipulate thermals.