Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Djp32 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:33 am

This is a great topic. I recently made a post with an analogy similar. Kinda like fisherman, trout specifically, telling you the best color spinner to use. Well it so happens that its the only color they carry in their box, lol. I have to admit, i listen to so many podcast and read so much stuff about hunting deer that i often am left with more questions than answers. A lot people contradict them selves and don’t even realize it. It’s to the point that most popular questions have automatic answers. Point I’m trying to make is that a subject like this just proves that there are no absolutes and every situation and area have there own unique set of circumstances. At the end of the day confidence may in fact be your best weapon. Therefore, if you think you have found an “absolute” then by all means stick with it. I think a big mistake would be trying to think about what someone else would do in every situation instead of just trying to learn the answer for your self.


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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Smitty » Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:58 am

Ryan549 wrote:I always seem to shoot bucks when my neighbor isn’t around to help me drag.



Exactly!!!!! My hunting buddy has been out of town on every deer I shot since 2017 I now make sure if he’s gone to be hunting, because it seems to be the time I knock one down.
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Boogieman1
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Boogieman1 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:21 am

Man, this is definitely my topic. I have always been a statistics/odds kinda of person. Somethings are easily measured by statistics. Take baseball. A simple scouting report will show a pitchers tendency. Maybe he is a first pitch, strike, fast ball pitcher.

For hunting purposes I still go by statistics and odds. In my state as well as any other state I’ve ever heard of. More folks take to the field opening day than any other day of the season. This day is also the lowest pressured a hunter will face the entire season. Yet it is statically nation wide a very low odds day to kill a mature buck. I would have to say any day of the entire month of November produces more trophy kills. The thing with whitetails is there is a cause and effect. A hunter can say he killed his only big buck 9 years ago early season and he would not have killed it if he was not aggressive buck hunting early season. True! The other guy can say yeah…. but you probably cost yourself the other 8 years. Also easily true.

For myself, years of running game cameras have removed most of the mystery. I find the best spot on a particular property, run a couple cams on it a year ahead of time, with absolutely no intrusion from me. I do this to get honest statistics without my own hunting interference. Some can argue that I don’t know what my camera is missing, or what’s going on over there. True! But I do know what my camera is capturing and when. I have yet to find that Intel not to reveal a specific time of season and window when it’s odds are the highest for catching a good buck in daylight from that tree, in that cameras view. So it makes sense to me to hunt the odds. If I ever get odds in favor of early season then you can bet I will be there. If not then I will go fishing or slick head hunt evening food sources. Just what I l prefer to do. Plus I don’t burn myself out. Most folks in my area give up before I even start thinking about getting serious. I like to joke about giving them a 1 month head start :lol: All good, don’t care what the next guy does just assumed this topic was how one interprets the odds.
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G-Patt
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby G-Patt » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:37 am

My odds increase when I physically see the buck before I plan to hunt him, not just see signs of him. But I don't always shoot him. :lol:
On my deathbed, I will receive total consciousness. So I have that going for me, which is nice!
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Stingray713 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:46 am

I’m toting my shotgun with 5 rifled slugs, and I see him before he sees me.
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Coalcracker » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:51 am

First day of rifle season is statistically the best chance you have at killing a buck in Pennsylvania.

Personally, I have killed more bucks on the first day of rifle season. I also haven't missed opening day in almost 40 years. But, if I added up the hours hunted on just that day over the years, my buck kill per hour would be pretty dismal compared to just about any other day.

I never "always" shoot a buck.
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Brad
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Brad » Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:06 am

I have only killed two antlered bucks... my first was a mature buck at 11am on private land on opening day of rifle season November 16th 2019. My second was a young 9 pointer at around 6:30pm on September 21st of 2020 on public land. I can't say there is anything consistent between the two.
I can say I am more likely to actually make a good shot with my bow than with a gun. I have shot at 4 deer with my bow & hit the exact spot I was aiming each time. I have shot at 2 deer (both great bucks) with my rifle, and took 3 shots to hit the first.. and completely missed the second one... My theory is that the deer I've shot early and late season with a bow have been just browsing slowly, but the deer I've shot at with a rifle have been during the rut and were moving around much faster.
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Boogieman1
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Boogieman1 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:44 am

greenhorndave wrote:My takeaway from these replies is that there are no absolutes despite the human mind wanting to dissect and distill data into patterns. And that’s not necessarily wrong… for that person if those are the things that help bring success in his or her hunting. You just can’t expect a creature with its own brain to do something the same as a similar creature with its own independent brain.

I’m not sure I’m following the rationale. But are u saying the best bedding area on 2,000 acres would not draw in the next big buck? Will say personally I don’t know. But sadly I do an extensive amount of what’s called “Dummy hunting” basically see a old buck do something in daylight and expect him to do the same under the same conditions. One might be surprised how other matures do the exact same thing.

Sadly, I don’t believe they are some super smart critter. In fact I don’t believe they can think or rationalize at all. It’s a grazing animal. The problem is there isn’t many of them and a old buck doesn’t move often. Hunt a spot where there is a lot of them and you will see a lot more regardless of technique. Unless we all wanna say Iowa hunters are the most skilled, I ask why they always bring home a big one?

Hunting funnels, food plots, etc… will you see mainly doe and young bucks? You bet! What do you see hunting beds? Every day giants or nothing….. My opinion you see the odds. There’s more of all those other caliber deer. If u r a fisherman do u catch more 10 pounders or one pounders? If one pounders is it cause there is simply more of them or your not using the right color lure? These are the questions that go through my head
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greenhorndave
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby greenhorndave » Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:55 pm

Boogieman1 wrote:
greenhorndave wrote:My takeaway from these replies is that there are no absolutes despite the human mind wanting to dissect and distill data into patterns. And that’s not necessarily wrong… for that person if those are the things that help bring success in his or her hunting. You just can’t expect a creature with its own brain to do something the same as a similar creature with its own independent brain.

I’m not sure I’m following the rationale. But are u saying the best bedding area on 2,000 acres would not draw in the next big buck? Will say personally I don’t know. But sadly I do an extensive amount of what’s called “Dummy hunting” basically see a old buck do something in daylight and expect him to do the same under the same conditions. One might be surprised how other matures do the exact same thing.

Sadly, I don’t believe they are some super smart critter. In fact I don’t believe they can think or rationalize at all. It’s a grazing animal. The problem is there isn’t many of them and a old buck doesn’t move often. Hunt a spot where there is a lot of them and you will see a lot more regardless of technique. Unless we all wanna say Iowa hunters are the most skilled, I ask why they always bring home a big one?

Hunting funnels, food plots, etc… will you see mainly doe and young bucks? You bet! What do you see hunting beds? Every day giants or nothing….. My opinion you see the odds. There’s more of all those other caliber deer. If u r a fisherman do u catch more 10 pounders or one pounders? If one pounders is it cause there is simply more of them or your not using the right color lure? These are the questions that go through my head

I could have said it simpler.

There are no absolutes. Tendencies for sure, but there’s no always or never.
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Boogieman1
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Boogieman1 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:10 pm

Agreed, Amigo!
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby mipubbucks24 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:14 pm

Lots of instances of this, mine is I have had 100% success of getting a mature buck in range when I have found primary scrapes with fresh pee in them, and I mean you can smell from 20 foot away pee. Now if only I could get 100% on the making a good shot part.
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Brian1986 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:22 pm

With deer hunting I look at statistics not in absolutes but as in trends or likelihood. If I am crunched for time I will lean on those trends to pick a day to go hunting. There are just so many variables to consider.
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Drich » Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:37 pm

I always shoot bucks when I am not fully prepared. Forget a knife, snack, and seat cushion? 100% chance of success that evening.
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blackwidow
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby blackwidow » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:32 am

I'd love to say that I always shoot bucks under a certain set of circumstances. But, that's not the case at all. Mature bucks are generally difficult to come by, so it does help me quite a bit if I can see one doing something and then try to kill him. On several occasions I've been able to get on a good buck within a matter of a couple days once I lay eyes on them. Doesn't mean I've always killed them (due to my own faults), but I've been able to get in position to kill them. That's the thing that's great about big bucks though....There are no absolutes, ever. Something that I have found with the places that I hunt though, is that most of the time a mature buck gets killed, I almost never see another mature buck come in and bed the exact same way that the previous buck did. That's just the places that I hunt, so I know other's observations will be different. The bucks use the general area pretty similarly, but never the exact same.
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Re: Statistics - “I always shoot bucks when…”

Unread postby Grizzlyadam » Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:32 am

I always shoot bucks when the calendar date of a day in November ends in teenth.


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