Data thread for trends

[Bowhunter4life]

Great thread! I will try to restrain my inner nerd here, but its probably gonna show through loud and clear

I've looked at my kills, but there's not enough data there to see much for trends. Even hunters that kill piles of bucks on here only have a few dozen data points when it comes to kills. So I switched to looking at sightings in all my hunts...turns out the hundreds of data points for that still weren't enough to show much. So then I switched to looking at trail camera data. The cameras I used data from were set up in spots like I would hunt - thick cover, travel routes near bedding. So "how" deer move in all the data is actually pretty consistent its not like I am using cameras set up over corn piles or food plots there is a lot more variability with that I think. I built a spreadsheet where all I have to do is type in the date and time of a photo. I get moon and sun data from the link I posted above and weather data from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/lcd. The weather data is from the nearest airport to my locations but its in 15 minute increments. I have hardly scratched the surface of the weather data...I want to look at relative humidity and all that. So far I have stuck mainly to barometric pressure, temp, wind speed, moon phase, moon position.

Anyway, a while ago I graphed DAYLIGHT trail camera observations from the 2014 and 2016 seasons and how the average number of deer I was getting changed through the fall. I think I posted this on here before but it probably was lost in the photobucket debacle.





looking at these two, I am sure you are like yuck can't see anything there. Well, that's what I find fascinating. Compare that to the change in how many deer I was getting on my 6-8 cameras in 2014!





In 2014 you can see peak rut, a sharp drop off that coincided with lock down, then another good peak following lock down. I also noticed a lot of hunters said 2014 was a classic great rut. A lot of people complained about a trickle rut in 2016 and I think there were two reasons for this. The weather was more stagnant - less pressure and temperature changes. Meaning less/smaller cold fronts.

The Rutting moon was November 6th in 2014 and November 14 in 2016. I firmly when the rutting moon lines up generally with peak rut each phase of rut activity becomes a lot more clear - meaning the peak has more activity, followed by a hard lock down and a nice second peak of mostly older bucks looking for the first hot doe. If the full moon falls in the pre rut, I also see that phase having more activity but then the rut ends up being less than average daylight movement. Why I do not know - I am aware science says most does get bred the same time every year. HINT full moon is on October 22nd this year

I do agree with the 1 week window centered around a full moon that Maine mentioned earlier in this thread. The crazy thing is, I also think there is overall LESS deer movement at first and last light right around a full moon. But bigger bucks are on their feet more in daylight, particularly in the middle of the day. Full moons do have underfoot transits in the middle of the day, but to be honest the more I have looked for a correlation between overhead and underfoot moon position, the less I see. So I am back to undecided on that factor.

So regarding weather, here is an example of how I slice that data - I enter in what I saw by location and then sit back and see what the numbers look like. Yea it took quite a few hours to build the spreadsheet but its fast now - a few minutes to copy in the weather and moon data from each fall and a few minutes for each camera typing in date and time of every daylight picture I want to include.



I find all sorts of trends doing this. In this case, there clearly is more movement in the afternoon. Its a ditch crossing close to bedding so that makes sense as bucks are exiting the bedding. The bedding area is used by a mature buck most often in the prerut, probably because there is really good doe bedding close by and this spot allows them to keep tabs but still be concealed. Its also really hard to get to, and that is why I think it sees more activity on the weekends - pressure from surrounding areas causes bucks to shelter here unlikely to be disturbed. I have never had another hunter on this camera and its on public land.

Lastly, the bedding is on a point preferable for W/NW winds so as expected those are favored. I couldn't say for sure why quite a few bucks came through on SE winds, that would make this sidehill a windward spot, other than to say SE winds are very common. That is the next level that I need to get into. I will compare frequency of occurances against what proportion of time a certain condition actually existed. That's why the above table is nifty but actually doesn't show that much. Hypothetically say a NW wind blew 90% of the time you had a camera out. Of course most of trail cam pictures will show a NW wind but another wind might be more favorable, you just didn't have a chance to see it. Anyway....I will stop now....

I knew I could count on you Joe. Awesome data.

X2. I was waiting on Joe to see this and chime in. Awesome data man, tons of valuable information there!

[Bowhunter4life]

I pretty much posted the same data as Andy used here. This is sightings and trail camera photos I collected from 2017-2018 season of daylight movement on bucks 4.5 or older. I did not post any sightings that I thought were related to a buck following a doe or if a doe came by a hour to two prior to the photo from late October on through early December. As far as I can tell this was all natural movement in close to bedding.



I will dig in a little deeper to my notes and trail camera photos from previous seasons when I get a chance too.

[headgear]

Maine, I do think it has an effect on deer. I mentioned this before but there have been so many times driving down the road in the summer months where I will see a group of deer feeding in a field. Go little further and there’s more deer out feeding and it’s the middle of the day. Nearly every time I saw this I would check the moon times and they would correlate with midday feeding. So take what we know about summer months....deer bed really close to food sources so we would be more likely to see those midday feed times from the road. What else do we know? In the summer there is no pressure. I think for right now my opinion is that is the single biggest factor that would negatively influence moon movement and would unltimately trump it’s effect. In regards to theories about the new moon. Or the full moon. Being better? I can’t say I have a stronger opinion on either. I’m hoping that really digging into all of my kills and then digging into all of my mature buck sightings that a pattern will emerge. So far looking into and comparing and I’m not seeing a huge pattern emerged in regards to moon yet. I hope more guys provide some data of mature bucks so we can get a bigger sample.

I know guys like Adam Hayes and Bill Vale put a ton of value in hunting in and around the new moon. (But they also sell a product)I remember Mark Drury saying he loves the days surrounding the full moon. All of them shoot big bucks consistently so it’s hard to say that one is superior over the other. I can only go by what I’ve seen and experienced.

Great observation on the moon Ridge, there is obviously something valid to it because I see the same extact thing. Like you mentioned pressure will play a big roll but I see them get up and feed, mill around in bedding areas all the time around peak moon times so the effect might not be as obvious when the pressure is there but I am still seeing it and a deer on their feet is easier to kill than one bedded down so if you can get in close you have a chance.

I will try and post up some data but I don't keep great records, mostly everything is just locked up in my brain other than general scouting data.

[mainebowhunter]

Great stuff...I am going to have to get back through and read it again. Joe stuff is pretty deep...lol.

Talked to my dad. Another 4.5 yr old we have not seen mi much of, he saw last night.

And there are so many data points that really probably can skew things either way.

Again, great thread.

[JoeRE]

Maine, I do think it has an effect on deer. I mentioned this before but there have been so many times driving down the road in the summer months where I will see a group of deer feeding in a field. Go little further and there’s more deer out feeding and it’s the middle of the day. Nearly every time I saw this I would check the moon times and they would correlate with midday feeding. So take what we know about summer months....deer bed really close to food sources so we would be more likely to see those midday feed times from the road. What else do we know? In the summer there is no pressure. I think for right now my opinion is that is the single biggest factor that would negatively influence moon movement and would unltimately trump it’s effect. In regards to theories about the new moon. Or the full moon. Being better? I can’t say I have a stronger opinion on either. I’m hoping that really digging into all of my kills and then digging into all of my mature buck sightings that a pattern will emerge. So far looking into and comparing and I’m not seeing a huge pattern emerged in regards to moon yet. I hope more guys provide some data of mature bucks so we can get a bigger sample.

I know guys like Adam Hayes and Bill Vale put a ton of value in hunting in and around the new moon. (But they also sell a product)I remember Mark Drury saying he loves the days surrounding the full moon. All of them shoot big bucks consistently so it’s hard to say that one is superior over the other. I can only go by what I’ve seen and experienced.

Great observation on the moon Ridge, there is obviously something valid to it because I see the same extact thing. Like you mentioned pressure will play a big roll but I see them get up and feed, mill around in bedding areas all the time around peak moon times so the effect might not be as obvious when the pressure is there but I am still seeing it and a deer on their feet is easier to kill than one bedded down so if you can get in close you have a chance.

I will try and post up some data but I don't keep great records, mostly everything is just locked up in my brain other than general scouting data.

Yea I have to say I grew up glassing deer almost every night each summer and thought there was a pretty consistent correlation between moon overhead and underfoot in the last couple hours of daylight. That was consistently when I saw the real big ones show up in the fields before dark - even when it was hot and humid. I just have seen nothing in the fall for this kind of trend and do think its because of hunting pressure and all the other changing factors. Summer has less human intrusion, less active weather (from a temperature fluctuation standpoint), less changing food sources, no rut hormones etc.

So even though I am curious about the moon just like everyone weather conditions are what I have really tried to dial into the last few years. And there is a ton there...like for temperature and wind chill and how that affects where deer bed and when they move beds.

[DaveT1963]

JoeRE awesome data. I have zero nerd in me (wish I had more) but I used to record/note camera data. like you, I've notice movement based upon temps/barometric pressure, suspect some mid day movement during nights of full moon (unless it was cloudy) but I have seen very little correlation to OH/UF moon.

[mainebowhunter]

It is interesting about the data points because I think sometimes, we are trying to interpret what we see on data points that may or may not be valid. Its seems that for every favorable piece of data there is another that suggests something different.

Last night, got one of my best bucks in broad daylight. That lines up with the moon phase theory. However, driving around, hardly saw a deer nor am I seeing many deer midday on camera or on the hoof. Spotting last night, very few deer out. On the other hand, between sightings and deer sightings on camera, this full moon period has been the best for big buck movement.

What I love about these trends, it does not cost you anything but time to watch them.

[street28ss]

Joe, interesting data. I think, as you know, we should always be skeptical of the data especially when we don't have a sufficient amount of it.

I think there are some trends in your data, but at the same time that data confirms that there is no concrete theory that explains deer movement. Trail camera data is also obviously not a complete picture of what's going on. They are inherently a localized view of the big picture.

At the end of the day, I don't think these trends and data will determine whether we are in the tree or not. And we should never let it determine that.

[headgear]

I don't think you are ever going to find one single overriding trend to predicts or determines deer movement. There are certainly data points that stand out but with so many of us hunting so many different areas at different times of the year on different terrains & food sources we are just going to get our deer in a variety of different ways using different tactics. That is probably a good thing, it means there is no one way to get it done.

[ScottSpitzley]

Great thread. Not sure why I did not see this sooner, I love working and seeing data like this.

[Whitetailaddict]

I have only started keeping a detailed journal the past two years so hardly enough data to get any meaningful info from. The trends I thought I noticed from year 1 were much different last year. It will be interesting to see if the trends repeat every few years due to crop rotation, moon phase, rut activity or mast production. I listened to a podcast with Dan Johnson and his guest did a large summary of data from a bunch of hunters and he found 3 factors that directly impact deer movement. These were wind speed, large changes in temperature and cloud cover. Windy days, clear/sunny days and cold fronts all increased deer movement. With that said he was referring to deer movement and not necessarily mature buck movement. Not sure if that data would be different or not.

[johndeere506]

Anyone find a good historic moon data site? I have everything else filled in, but in some quick searches haven't found a good moon site yet.

I like this a lot. I'm planning on keeping my version going for all mature buck sightings during the season going forward. May even go back through what notes I have and add some of that info in.

I use this: http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/mrst.php. Paste data into notepad and save it as a .csv file and then you can open it in excel without having to edit the format too much. I usually grab moon and sun data August-January for each season.

More on what I have looked at in my next post

Excellent data from both of you. Its been a few years since I went full throttle on the data, but it helped me kill bucks more consistently every year.

One big thing I remember is going back through kills or mature buck daylight sighting or trail cam pics. At first I only looked at the weather that day, but later added the 3 days prior to each. That gave more consistent results. I found that a CHANGE in weather regardless of low to high, high to low, wind directions and such created a higher probability. The 1-2 days after a major temp or wind change, even a slightly warmer front proved to be worth hunting, at least from where my data was taken. I think Drury went over that in his podcast a few years back also. Ever since then I love a S-SE wind after a W or N based front passes.

[NYBackcountry]

I think the daylight movement coinciding with changes in general, whether it be BP, weather, temp, predator pressure, etc. really couples well with the idea of bed hunting. Most of those factors have some impact on where a buck beds at a given time. Naturally when those changes occur, deer will adjust with the conditions. Why move beds if the conditions stay consistent for a couple of days.

Nothing profound, just thinking out loud.