Historical Data

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mainebowhunter
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Historical Data

Unread postby mainebowhunter » Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:24 pm

We all the know the importance of historical day. Its one of things many of us push for each and every season is putting stuff down to try to find a repeatable pattern that can be capitalized on the next season. Lets face it, trail cams leave you hunting behind the deer, not in front of them. Here in Maine, that process takes a bit longer. Less deer, bigger woods, hunting outside the rut means more combinations of food, cover and varying hunting pressure. Midwest its during the rut, so historical data is a bit different, movement bit more predictable.

So far this season...how many of you guys killed bucks based on intel you have had from previous years? And how many were before the rut began? And how many patterns were rut based? Were the observations from treestand? Observations from camera?


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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby jwilkstn » Tue Dec 27, 2016 3:45 pm

Good topic.

My buck (late late pre-rut) was partially due to last season's trail camera intel. I analyzed his movements, but honestly couldn't find tendencies based on weather or wind, just on rut phase. He had two key areas he seemed to bed in, and he moved to the one closer to does more often come late pre-rut.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby Hawthorne » Tue Dec 27, 2016 4:33 pm

Historical data is huge for me. Bucks seem to show up in spots to the day sometimes. One of the big things I'm trying to learn on the public I'm hunting. Next year I'll be going on my third year out there much smarter after gathering two years of info
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby Ack » Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:55 pm

Last season I ran a cam from Sept. through mid-Nov. about 200 yards from where I shot my buck this fall.....big woods public with some swamp. The spot where I placed the cam had solid buck sign every year, which is why I decided to let the cam soak in there for awhile. What I found out is that the bucks leaving that sign did not show up until late Oct. through early Nov.....and they were leaving the classic pre-rut and rut sign at night as usual.

Knowing the good bucks most likely would hold the same pattern this year, I stayed out and didn't hunt it until the very end of October, even though I do have a buck bed nailed down near this spot. I got blanked on my first sit, but took note of a crossing west of me where I heard deer crossing water every time I sat in that stand. Went in blind a few days later and moved in on the downwind side of the crossing and had the buck (I shot) come through the water crossing dogging does, and eventually into my setup.

The cam from the year before told me when to move in, and I now have that intel for the rest of my life. It took a little refining of my position, and I will probably adjust a little more for next season. Granted, this was historical rut movement, but that's when I get the most time to hunt, so it's what I key in on the most at this point.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby venisonassassin » Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:41 am

The buck I shot was on Oct. 22nd so it was coming from a small island of bedding out in the cattails which has no big trees on it. I found the spot by cyber scouting years ago and scouted on foot a few times although I havent hunted it in a couple years until this year. One interesting note is that the deer was walking with the wind when I shot it coming out. After scouting that spot and the surrounding area after the kill I will be hunting the area with a whole new mindset because there was quite a few beds that were found that were not noticed a few years ago.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby JoeRE » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:11 am

I will try to keep this as short and sweet as possible...everybody knows I am a data nut.

I am always trying to find patterns...IMO that is probably the most effective way to use conventional trail cameras. Park it somewhere long term to observe. Maybe its on a rut cruising route to see what the peak time periods of movement are or on the entrance to bedding.

The thing to keep in mind though, things do move around a little year to year. I find more patterns around weather events than specific calendar days. For instance, a particular rut bedding location starts holding a mature buck right around the first good cold front in the second half of October. Earlier than that its used mostly by smaller bucks. That is how I killed my bow buck in 2014 - in 2013 I had a camera and noticed this pattern. Hunted it in 2014 on the tail end of that cold front and killed.

I have killed a few other bucks like that as a result of annual patterns. In 2007 I hunted a water hole late October and had a close encounter with a good buck, just outside of shooting light. He was using a bedding location pretty close to there. I killed him on that same water hole a year later in 2008 within a week of that. I looked for the same conditions - same wind and warm weather during the late pre-rut and bingo.

There have been a couple others. In 2011 I killed a buck I had watched for 2 previous seasons that would only show up in or close to daylight on that small property for a couple days in the late-prerut, I think right before the first doe came into estrus in the area. There have been a LOT of others that I did NOT guess correctly but in hindsight the pattern was there...

In 2015 I should have killed a whopper of a buck on a known rut cruising pattern that I saw after leaving a trail camera to soak at that location all November 2014. He would come through these doe bedding areas every 3-4 days apparently in between hot does. I timed the hunt right on Halloween 2015 just got to my stand too late (the story of my life as a dad now :lol: ) and spooked him setting up. I am sure he was coming through because a doe in the area was on the verge of coming into heat.

If there was one point I would try to emphasize the most, look for correlations around weather events and other major factors like food sources and/or changes in hunting pressure (weekends, special deer seasons opening and closing that sort of thing) not simply specific calendar days. Trust me a buck doesn't know if its October 27th, he just knows its the pre-rut and if a doe is coming into estrus tomorrow, or not till next week.

So to answer some of your questions Maine most of the annual patterns I have taken advantage of are rut related but not all. A lot of pre-rut patterns, a time period that I have heard described as unpredictable by other hunters. I am not sure maybe they are looking to hard - its not like I am finding a buck using the same trail or working the same scrape for a week straight - its often something like twice in a week period and usually around weather events like cold fronts, wind, temperatures...

The patterns that are not rut-based are often tied more to specific food than calendar days. That's more complicated because often food sources change every year with crop rotations and mast production but I have found when a specific food source is hot behavior around it is similar to the last time it was hot say 3-4 years ago. Say an oak flat produces a bumper crop or a field is alfalfa new seeding. Really helps to take notes on primary food sources every season and as it changes through the fall.

mainebowhunter wrote:We all the know the importance of historical day. Its one of things many of us push for each and every season is putting stuff down to try to find a repeatable pattern that can be capitalized on the next season. Lets face it, trail cams leave you hunting behind the deer, not in front of them. Here in Maine, that process takes a bit longer. Less deer, bigger woods, hunting outside the rut means more combinations of food, cover and varying hunting pressure. Midwest its during the rut, so historical data is a bit different, movement bit more predictable.

So far this season...how many of you guys killed bucks based on intel you have had from previous years? And how many were before the rut began? And how many patterns were rut based? Were the observations from treestand? Observations from camera?


100% true! One of the hardest things to communicate to hunters who haven't learned it the hard way yet....everybody wants to get a buck on camera and then go back and kill him the next day or next week. Would work a lot better if we had time machines :lol:
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby magicman54494 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:26 am

I don't get to hunt much prior to the rut these days. Data would be great if I could. Most of my hunting is during the rut with a gun in my hand and when possible on a track in the snow.

One way that data really helps me is getting back on bucks from previous years. If he is still alive I can usually find him based past data. They always run the same routes so finding them is a lot easier.
If I don't have snow I will sit along a past route in his core area if the sign shows he is still there.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby mainebowhunter » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:34 am

When it comes to historical data, I figure where I live, its going to take me 15yrs compiling data to really get a true sense of all of the trends/travel routes/behaviors of the deer that I am chasing. I am not a rifle hunter or a tracker so my data has to come through other means. I run a pile of trail cameras, sift through a lot of data, scout a ton and develop a lot of potential for the upcoming season.

I am wrong way more than I am right.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby JoeRE » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:44 am

mainebowhunter wrote:When it comes to historical data, I figure where I live, its going to take me 15yrs compiling data to really get a true sense of all of the trends/travel routes/behaviors of the deer that I am chasing. I am not a rifle hunter or a tracker so my data has to come through other means. I run a pile of trail cameras, sift through a lot of data, scout a ton and develop a lot of potential for the upcoming season.
I am wrong way more than I am right.


I still am. We talk about putting the odds in our favor but in reality it is trying to move from winning-the-lotto type odds of killing a big buck by wandering around the woods with your weapon of choice down to something manageable...like 1 in 6 or 1 in 10 or even 1 in 20 hunts.

Still "wrong" more often than "right". That is the way I look at it.
Last edited by JoeRE on Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby Southern Man » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:45 am

JoeRE wrote:I am always trying to find patterns...IMO that is probably the most effective way to use conventional trail cameras. Park it somewhere long term to observe. Maybe its on a rut cruising route to see what the peak time periods of movement are or on the entrance to bedding.

If there was one point I would try to emphasize the most, look for correlations around weather events and other major factors like food sources and/or changes in hunting pressure (weekends, special deer seasons opening and closing that sort of thing) not simply specific calendar days.


I operate on historical data most of the time. I like to learn an area thoroughly just because it interests me. It takes me years sometimes to get to know an area well, there's always something new to learn, or for some patterns to emerge. Trail cameras put you hunting behind the deer only if you use them to hunt this year. Seldom do I use them this way. I hang them in March / April and leave them until January or so in areas I want to learn like JoeRE said above. The buck I killed this year was the result of historical data from hunting that piece of property for the last several years. I know it in and out. It was a rut hunt, but didn't have to be. This particular setup is good at pretty much anytime during the season. It's just a bit more intense during rut time.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby JoeRE » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:47 am

Oh and Maine I bet it doesn't take you 15 years. Hope not anyway that is a heck of a long time to wait. Bet you see major dividends from recording annual trends within 3-4 years but yea I know I have never hunted out there.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby mainebowhunter » Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:09 am

JoeRE wrote:Oh and Maine I bet it doesn't take you 15 years. Hope not anyway that is a heck of a long time to wait. Bet you see major dividends from recording annual trends within 3-4 years but yea I know I have never hunted out there.


Killed pile of deer in Maine prior to 2011. Decided in 2011 to really decide to start running cameras, scouting more and really pushing for the 3.5 and up. 2016 marked year #6. What I have found is that because of the amount of cover and lower densities, learning ground takes a ton more time than when I am in the midwest. On top of that, I am strictly doing most of my hunting outside the rut. So food trumps everything. Where I find the deer one season, I may not see them there again.

And it takes a ton of ground just to find the mature deer to chase.

Take for instance 2015. Killed a buck, basically on an annual trend. 1st 2 weeks of October, that spot will produce on an odd year. When the place has apples, bucks are there. So 2016, there was minimal food there. Bucks still were there, but started to peel out of there as the season approached, apples were dwindling. One small 3.5 stuck around...but never really gave him that many hunts. Hunted there now since 2011, this past year, last week of October, bucks were hammering the apples, including a beauty that I had not seen since end of September. Never seen that trend before.

New piece of ground that I hunted this year. Found a ground scrape. Left camera there through month of October. 3rd week of October, 3.5yr + bucks were hammering it, during daylight. 4th week, not as much. Now this year was heaviest acorn year I have ever seen. Trends that I saw this year, may not hold for next year.

Contrast that to KS. I know, if I am patient, there is a good chance of killing a 4.5 or 5.5yr old buck somewhere around mid November. Around the 13 to 15th, mature bucks will start showing back up to food, feeding heavy. You start seeing them from stand. Its something I can count on. Maybe not every year...but its good enough to keep a tag open, even if it means eating it.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby mainebowhunter » Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:22 am

So its really trends in Sept and first part of October that I really look for. But its so many combinations of years with apples, without acorns. Acorns, without apples. Apples with some acorns. Some acorns, no apples. No apples, no acorns. Dry year, wet year.

The combinations are endless. Than, on top of that, some years like 2015, one of my best pieces of ground, the conditions were right but only one mature buck was using the area. Never hunted it. Deer were pounding an oak tree. Thought they preferred that tree. Pounded it in 2012. Pounded in 2015. 2016, it was loaded again, so were 100s of other trees. NOPE. It was not a preferred oak tree. 1000s of pics in 2015, very few pics in 2016. Its only preferred when there are a few acorns.

Killed buck in 2012 based on inseason scouting, thought it was an annual spot. 75+ rubs by the first part of Oct. Bucks were bedding it. Never seen a buck bed it since. Hardly seen a fresh rub since.

Like I said, I am wrong, way more than I am right. When I talk with seasoned rifle hunters, I realize, those guys hunt miles and miles still hunting. They are in the woods while its happening. They have a head full of knowledge that is only acquired with time in the woods.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby mainebowhunter » Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:33 am

As you can tell, its Christmas break...and I am bored.

Just to add this, as much as I love historical data, I also really love to look at brandnew property, figure out where I need to setup just based on sign and what I see.

Learning to depend on just what you know, becoming successful at hunting based on historical data really can hurt if you do not strike out and try to learn new areas just based on sign and terrain alone. Buddies of mine have struggled in the midwest because they are so used to hunting based on historical data not based on terrain and sign alone.
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Re: Historical Data

Unread postby magicman54494 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:37 am

mainebowhunter wrote:
I am wrong way more than I am right.


Arent we all. lol

My motto is: I only have to win once!


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