Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

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phade
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Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby phade » Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:15 am

I'm not the brightest bulb on the tree, but I can hold my own. I work for a Fortune 500 company and run a risk and opportunity assessment program within the company. Attached to me is our Risk Analytics team, which within the industry is recognized as one of the best in business. Education wise, the team is the most highly-educated group in a 13k employee company where you don't get in unless you hold an undergraduate degree. There's 8 people and 60 years worth of degrees, with three doctorals including Ivy league schools.

If you are unfamiliar with analytics, it's really one of the bigger buzz topics in business today. It's about harnessing information and being able to identify patterns to a level that hasn't been seen in history. I'm going to build a model based off of conditions and game cam pics for a certain spot that I can control pretty well and have a past sample to draw from initially. Right now my current data is mostly limited to the first 10 days of November, but I intend to see it through a full season this year. I can glean significant amounts of information from it (peak movement, time of movement, etc.).

So, [glow=red]what I need to document, are the conditions with which to consider mature buck movements[/glow].

Don't just throw out wind direction. Instead, say wind direction and wind speed. Or barometric pressure and the rate of change within a 24 hour period (ie falling/raising).

So, throw some spaghetti on the wall and I'll work with what sticks. I can post results on initial data once the model is built - it'll take a few weeks to do. Running the data forward after construction will be as easy as data entry.


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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby dan » Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:28 am

I can't give you stats, like "how much"... But can say that movement just before, after or during a cold front is usually good, as is movement just after or before a long hard storm.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby phade » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:53 am

dan wrote:I can't give you stats, like "how much"... But can say that movement just before, after or during a cold front is usually good, as is movement just after or before a long hard storm.

No numbers needed, just "conditions" to include in the model.

I'll have to look into it, but I believe using the pressure change can cover the front movements.

Things like temperature (and change), humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, moon phases, etc. These are examples of conditions to monitor in the model. I'll include the minutes in the daylight (decreasing), wind direction, wind speed in addition to whatever else I can reliably get data for.

Hunting pressure is one as well. I'm going to try to quantify that....probably grade it out. A = untouched (ie no intrusion within X days) b = 1 intrusion C = 2 intrusions.

I don't think I can bring in food sources. It's heavy ag for the area, and crop rotation will play a role, but this area is pretty much within the major bedding acreage. I'd have to track the crops over many years to see any patterns. I'd probably need at least 5-7 years.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby Stanley » Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:21 am

Movement during a light rain with no wind is usually increased. Heavy rains no, thunderstorms no. I think this goes along with a light rain, but wet ground movement increases. I think it is because bucks can move around making less noise.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby phade » Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:30 am

Stanley wrote:Movement during a light rain with no wind is usually increased. Heavy rains no, thunderstorms no. I think this goes along with a light rain, but wet ground movement increases. I think it is because bucks can move around making less noise.

That I can track as I can pull hourly precipitation data. I'm not so sure where I'd find whether it was thunder/lightning at a given hourly breakdown. Wet ground (not raining however) I may be able to determine based on humidity and time from last precipitation in some fashion.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby Black Squirrel » Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:39 am

I think phase of the rut has to be considered. Along with temperature, or deviation from normal. Colder days seem to have them on there feet earlier in the afternoon or mid day during the rut, more than a hot day.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby phade » Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:01 am

Black Squirrel wrote:I think phase of the rut has to be considered. Along with temperature, or deviation from normal. Colder days seem to have them on there feet earlier in the afternoon or mid day during the rut, more than a hot day.

This one seems like it could be a challenge. Along the lines of hunting pressure, we'd have to quantify that. I'm thinking maybe we take the output after the fact to look at the phase of the rut. To me, I would look for increased daytime activity showing up and then being able to go back and say Nov. 4-8 had the msot daytime buck sightings between 10 and 2 (or something along those lines).

Deviation from avg temp is a good one.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby G3s » Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:25 am

My brother and I have tried drawing parallels for deer movement and we have noticed best movement on a dropping pressure when the Barometer is 29.5-29.8. works good for fishing also. We have noticed that the same numbers seems to work on a rising Barometer but not as well as a falling pressure.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby xpauliber » Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:43 am

Here is some data that you can pull from Wunderground.com. You might as well include as much information as possible and let the model analyze it no matter how insignificant it seems.

The only issue that I can see with this however is that the weather info is zip code specific. Keep that in mind as you look at trail cam pics, etc. You will want all of the data the model is looking at to be from the same geographic region.

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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby phade » Fri Feb 15, 2013 9:18 am

xpauliber wrote:Here is some data that you can pull from Wunderground.com. You might as well include as much information as possible and let the model analyze it no matter how insignificant it seems.

The only issue that I can see with this however is that the weather info is zip code specific. Keep that in mind as you look at trail cam pics, etc. You will want all of the data the model is looking at to be from the same geographic region.

Image


I plan on using wunderground for the bulk of the weather history.

It seems like hourly is going to be the time slot I'll target. The cam data from this past season is on the same tree. I intend to do the same again this year. A seperate one for another spot is in the works. Hunting pressure to me is the hard to really build into it. At this point, I'm not prepared to run multi cams within the area on a study this level. My intent is to see when this spot would be best hunted based on the data, but also pull out some other details, such as deer preferring X wind direction or XX pressure.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby Fuzzy » Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:23 am

I would look at weather patterns, wind direction, wind speed, was the wind constant or gusting. Precip-rain, sleet, snow heavy or light. Moon phase o/h u/f. Barometric pressure. Number of hunters in the woods. Available food sources(peak ripeness) or changes do to farm practices.... I would account for all of these for the 12 hours prior and the 12 hours after you get trail cam pics from certain areas. You may even want to expand that to 24 hour windows. It would be interesting to see if you could predict where a deer may show hours before the trail cam snaps a pic just by putting certain combos together.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby PK_ » Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:35 am

Time of day
Wind direction
Wind velocity
Temp
Barometer
percipitation
Cloud cover(high pressure/low pressure)
moon phase
moon position (apogee/perigree would be cool too)

That is most of the common ones.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby Spysar » Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:08 am

What about lumens? Is there a certain amount of light that triggers movement? Cloud cover and sunup and sundown would make it dim or bright. :?:

An increase in lumens(light) could trigger a buck to his bed, and a decrease may cause him to get up.

Don't know how to track this stuff though.... :oops:
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby phade » Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:11 pm

Spysar wrote:What about lumens? Is there a certain amount of light that triggers movement? Cloud cover and sunup and sundown would make it dim or bright. :?:

An increase in lumens(light) could trigger a buck to his bed, and a decrease may cause him to get up.

Don't know how to track this stuff though.... :oops:

Lots of good stuff here.

If I can find a reliable source for lumens/light intensity I can track it. It doesn't necessarily need to be spot on, just consistent so I can pull the pattern.
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Re: Give me conditions to consider for mature buck movement.

Unread postby Edcyclopedia » Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:20 pm

Food influence... Meaning acorns dropping, crops being harvested, apples, etc.
Probably real difficult to gage unless you're really in tune with the sources...
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